The 0.4% Peace: Why Prediction Markets Are Signal, Not Alpha
The data shows a market that assigns a 0.4% probability to a permanent peace...
Market Quotes
•
Kaitoshi
•
2026-07-24
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$64,149.4
-1.82%
ETH
Ethereum
$1,860.9
-1.01%
SOL
Solana
$74.21
-2.15%
BNB
BNB Chain
$565.7
-0.32%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.09
-1.54%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0696
+0.58%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1634
-2.33%
AVAX
Avalanche
$6.28
-0.13%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.8160
+0.02%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.33
-1.37%
Event Calendar
202610
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trend Tags
💡 Smart Money
0xec9f...bf2a
Institutional Custody
-$3.9M
74%
0x30b4...1f00
Market Maker
+$3.5M
73%
0xa691...d9d5
Institutional Custody
+$0.4M
72%
#liquidity analysis
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Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Market Sentiment
Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Market Cap
All →| # | Coin | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bitcoin
BTC
|
$64,149.4 |
| 1 |
Ethereum
ETH
|
$1,860.9 |
| 1 |
Solana
SOL
|
$74.21 |
| 1 |
BNB Chain
BNB
|
$565.7 |
| 1 |
XRP Ledger
XRP
|
$1.09 |
| 1 |
Dogecoin
DOGE
|
$0.0696 |
| 1 |
Cardano
ADA
|
$0.1634 |
| 1 |
Avalanche
AVAX
|
$6.28 |
| 1 |
Polkadot
DOT
|
$0.8160 |
| 1 |
Chainlink
LINK
|
$8.33 |
🐋 Whale Tracker
🟢
0x42a3...7115
5m ago
In
31,405 SOL
🔴
0xa6b0...da40
3h ago
Out
1,023,557 USDT
🟢
0x1d04...7ef8
6h ago
In
14,673 BNB